The Morning Card — July 18, 2026

Last night

The analyst went 8–3 for +4.2u last night. Best: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Ks (+122) cashed with 8. The miss: Michael King Over 4.5 Ks (finished 4).

Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Ks (+122): WON
Brady Singer — Over 4.5 Ks (+114): WON
Peter Lambert — Over 5.5 Ks (+100): WON
Troy Melton — Over 5.5 Ks (-119): WON
Bailey Ober — Over 3.5 Ks (-125): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 4.5 Ks (-132): WON
Bryce Miller — Over 5.5 Ks (-135): WON
Cade Cavalli — Over 5 Ks (-137): WON
Spencer Miles — Under 4 Ks (-137): PUSH
Merrill Kelly — Over 3.5 Ks (-113): LOST
Chris Sale — Over 7.5 Ks (+116): LOST
Michael King — Over 4.5 Ks (+114): LOST

Tonight

16 games on the slate — the marquee: Pirates @ Guardians at 2026-07-18T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Gavin Williams is swinging free — he averages 10.6 K/9 and the Pirates whiff 23% of the time, so strikeouts should dominate the game narrative. FanDuel prices the Guardians at -126 and the consensus total is 7.5, signaling a modest favorite and expectations for limited scoring. The counterpoint: Jared Jones brings a 10.0 K/9 season mark and Progressive Field plays pitcher-friendly (-6% runs vs average), which should amplify the swing-and-miss theme and suppress offense.

Watch list

Pirates @ Guardians — Jared Jones is dealing — 4.15 ERA with 10.4 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Twins @ Cubs — Taj Bradley is dealing — 2.32 ERA with 11 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Reds @ Rockies — Elly De La Cruz owns Colorado Rockies — 33-for-76 (.434) over 88 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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