The Morning Card — July 19, 2026

The analyst's record: 19–5–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 9–2 for +4.4u last night. Best: JT Ginn Over 4.5 Ks (+132) cashed with 7. The miss: Max Meyer Over 5.5 Ks (finished 5).

JT Ginn — Over 4.5 Ks (+132): WON
Griffin Canning — Over 3.5 Ks (-130): WON
Logan Webb — Under 5.5 Ks (-130): WON
Davis Martin — Over 3.5 Ks (-132): WON
Jesus Luzardo — Over 6.5 Ks (-146): WON
Dustin May — Over 3.5 Ks (-150): WON
Tarik Skubal — Over 7.5 Ks (-200): WON
MacKenzie Gore — Over 4.5 Ks (-225): WON
Tomoyuki Sugano — Under 3.5 Ks (-225): WON
Taj Bradley — Over 6 Ks (-137): PUSH
Ian Seymour — Over 5 Ks (-137): LOST
Max Meyer — Over 5.5 Ks (-120): LOST

Tonight

16 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Jays at 2026-07-19T16:15:00.0000000+00:00.

The Sox have owned this matchup — they're 4-0 in the season series and have outscored Toronto 26-11. A big reason is Sean Burke's recent run: he carries a 2.83 ERA while punching out 12.6 batters per nine, a level of dominance that has tilted these meetings. That matters because Toronto's corner-outfield depth is thin and Daulton Varsho is mired in a deep slump (.086), while the Sox arrive 4-1 over their last five games.

Watch list

Sox @ Jays — Sean Burke is dealing — 2.83 ERA with 12.6 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Rays @ Sox — Sonny Gray is dealing — 1.62 ERA with 9.2 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Giants @ Mariners — Robbie Ray has dominated Seattle Mariners — .217 BAA with a 28% strikeout rate over 138 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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