The Morning Card — July 22, 2026

The analyst's record: 35–26–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 8–5 for +2.8u last night. Best: Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Ks (+132) cashed with 7. The miss: Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Ks (finished 1).

Matthew Liberatore — Over 5.5 Ks (+132): WON
Tatsuya Imai — Over 5.5 Ks (+126): WON
Reynaldo Lopez — Over 4.5 Ks (+120): WON
Miles Mikolas — Under 2.5 Ks (+106): WON
Luinder Avila — Over 3.5 Ks (-110): WON
Zack Wheeler — Over 6.5 Ks (-130): WON
Kumar Rocker — Over 4.5 Ks (-151): WON
Luis Castillo — Under 6.5 Ks (-152): WON
Brandon Sproat — Over 4.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Kevin Gausman — Over 5.5 Ks (+108): LOST
Parker Messick — Under 5.5 Ks (-139): LOST
Jack Perkins — Over 4.5 Ks (-102): LOST
Framber Valdez — Over 4.5 Ks (-115): LOST

Tonight

17 games on the slate — the marquee: Pirates @ Yankees at 2026-07-22T17:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Gerrit Cole is the game's central storyline: he enters with a 3.97 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 this season. That matters because Pittsburgh has erupted for 36 runs recently and Esmerlyn Valdez has seven homers, so Cole's ability to miss bats will be tested. Mitch Keller's 5.05 ERA and uneven recent starts provide the counterpoint — this isn't a foregone conclusion for New York even with Cole on the bump. Cole's length becomes pivotal given the Yankees' bullpen logged 15.3 relief innings over the last 3 days, with Brent Headrick working heavy.

Watch list

Orioles @ Sox — Dean Kremer is dealing — 4.15 ERA with 10 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Giants @ Royals — Seth Lugo has stifled San Francisco Giants — limiting them to a .198 BAA over 195 plate appearances across 8 seasons. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Padres @ Braves — Michael King has dominated Atlanta Braves — .211 BAA with a 28% strikeout rate over 81 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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