The Morning Card — July 23, 2026

The analyst's record: 48–29–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 12–3 for +8.6u last night. Best: Landen Roupp Over 5.5 Ks (+127) cashed with 7. The miss: Sandy Alcantara Over 5.5 Ks (finished 3).

Landen Roupp — Over 5.5 Ks (+127): WON
Cade Cavalli — Over 5.5 Ks (+114): WON
Brady Singer — Over 5.5 Ks (+113): WON
Gage Jump — Over 4.5 Ks (+110): WON
Michael King — Over 4.5 Ks (+104): WON
Anthony Kay — Under 4.5 Ks (+100): WON
Colin Rea — Over 4.5 Ks (-104): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 4.5 Ks (-111): WON
Gerrit Cole — Over 6.5 Ks (-113): WON
Christian Scott — Over 5.5 Ks (-118): WON
Slade Cecconi — Over 3.5 Ks (-148): WON
Reid Detmers — Over 5.5 Ks (-153): WON
Kyle Bradish — Over 5.5 Ks (+132): LOST
Aaron Nola — Over 5.5 Ks (+112): LOST
Sandy Alcantara — Over 5.5 Ks (+132): LOST

Tonight

5 games on the slate — the marquee: Padres @ Braves at 2026-07-23T16:15:00.0000000+00:00.

Chris Sale's current run — a 2.03 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA over his last five starts — is the defining angle. That matters because the Padres counter with Griffin Canning, who carries a 6.67 ERA into the start, giving Sale a clear run-prevention edge. The matchup gains a wrinkle because Manny Machado is 10-for-27 against Sale, and Truist Park's pitcher-friendly surface should blunt big offensive swings.

Watch list

Twins @ Guardians — Taj Bradley is dealing — 3.19 ERA with 11.6 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Diamondbacks @ Cardinals — Michael McGreevy is dealing — 2.73 ERA with 6.1 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Rays @ Jays — Shane Bieber has dominated Tampa Bay Rays — .222 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 197 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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