The Morning Card — July 26, 2026

The analyst's record: 63–48–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 6–8 for −2.8u last night. Best: Brandon Young Over 4.5 Ks (+118) cashed with 6. The miss: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Ks (finished 4).

Brandon Young — Over 4.5 Ks (+118): WON
Nolan McLean — Over 6.5 Ks (+114): WON
Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Ks (-121): WON
Hunter Brown — Over 5.5 Ks (-137): WON
Paul Skenes — Over 6.5 Ks (-142): WON
Ryan Weathers — Over 5.5 Ks (-160): WON
Eury Perez — Over 5.5 Ks (-140): LOST
Nick Martinez — Under 3.5 Ks (-139): LOST
Robbie Ray — Over 5.5 Ks (-130): LOST
Foster Griffin — Over 4.5 Ks (-130): LOST
Hunter Greene — Over 6.5 Ks (+106): LOST
Bryan Woo — Over 5.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Casey Mize — Over 5.5 Ks (+100): LOST
Robert Gasser — Over 5.5 Ks (+106): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Guardians @ Rays at 2026-07-26T16:15:00.0000000+00:00.

Parker Messick's season-long form is the game's spine: he arrives with a 2.80 ERA and 9.0 K/9, and whether he can keep Tampa Bay's hitters from rolling will determine if this stays a pitcher’s contest at Tropicana Field. The Rays are hot — 4-1 in their last five while scoring 35 runs — so Messick faces a lineup swinging with real momentum. If Messick slips, the counterweight is Drew Rasmussen’s recent inconsistency, including a pair of multi-run outings, and the park itself suppresses scoring by eight percent, a combo that should keep this from turning into a run-fest.

Watch list

Diamondbacks @ Nationals — Miles Mikolas has stifled Arizona Diamondbacks — limiting them to a .191 BAA over 144 plate appearances across 4 seasons. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Dodgers @ Mets — Freddy Peralta has stifled Los Angeles Dodgers — limiting them to a .186 BAA over 213 plate appearances across 7 seasons. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Cubs @ Pirates — Esmerlyn Valdez is on a power surge — 7 HR, 2 doubles, batting .239 over his last 10 games.

More cards

← July 25, 2026 July 27, 2026 →

Oct 2 · Oct 1 · Sep 30 · Sep 29 · Sep 28 · Sep 27 · Sep 26 · Sep 25 · Sep 24 · Sep 23