The Morning Card — July 25, 2026

The analyst's record: 57–40–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 6–9 for −3.8u last night. Best: German Marquez Over 3.5 Ks (+124) cashed with 4. The miss: Grant Holmes Under 4.5 Ks (finished 5).

German Marquez — Over 3.5 Ks (+124): WON
Jesus Luzardo — Over 7.5 Ks (-106): WON
Dustin May — Over 5.5 Ks (-108): WON
Shane Drohan — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): WON
Tarik Skubal — Over 7.5 Ks (-148): WON
Grayson Rodriguez — Under 4.5 Ks (-151): WON
Spencer Arrighetti — Over 5.5 Ks (+118): LOST
Jacob Lopez — Over 4.5 Ks (+132): LOST
MacKenzie Gore — Over 5.5 Ks (-157): LOST
Eduardo Rodriguez — Over 4.5 Ks (+115): LOST
Jared Jones — Over 5.5 Ks (+110): LOST
Sean Manaea — Over 5.5 Ks (+125): LOST
Joey Cantillo — Over 4.5 Ks (-146): LOST
Patrick Sandoval — Over 4.5 Ks (+114): LOST
Grant Holmes — Under 4.5 Ks (+123): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Royals @ Tigers at 2026-07-25T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Salvador Perez has dominated Casey Mize in their history, hitting .424 in 35 plate appearances. That stands out because Mize arrives with a strong season — a 2.87 ERA and an imposing 9.0 K/9 — so the game hinges on whether Perez’s unusual success against this particular starter persists. Yet Perez has struggled against righties this year, batting just .188 over 282 AB, which makes his career edge over Mize an outlier to watch.

Watch list

Padres @ Marlins — Eury Pérez is dealing — 1.24 ERA with 9.9 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Jays @ Sox — Sonny Gray is dealing — 1.11 ERA with 9.7 K/9 over his last 5 starts. Regression Watch says the run doesn't predict.
Angels @ Giants — Robbie Ray has dominated Los Angeles Angels — .219 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 153 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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