The Morning Card — July 28, 2026

The analyst's record: 65–59–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The analyst went 1–10 for −9.4u last night. Best: Mitch Keller Over 3.5 Ks (-158) cashed with 4. The miss: Max Fried Over 5.5 Ks (finished 4).

Mitch Keller — Over 3.5 Ks (-158): WON
Andrew Alvarez — Over 3.5 Ks (-110): LOST
Jack Perkins — Over 4.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Kyle Bradish — Over 5.5 Ks (+102): LOST
Tyler Mahle — Over 4.5 Ks (-134): LOST
Tatsuya Imai — Over 6.5 Ks (+123): LOST
George Kirby — Over 5.5 Ks (+105): LOST
David Peterson — Over 3.5 Ks (+114): LOST
Martin Perez — Under 3.5 Ks (+107): LOST
Zack Wheeler — Over 7.5 Ks (+113): LOST
Max Fried — Over 5.5 Ks (+116): LOST

Tonight

16 games on the slate — the marquee: Guardians @ Reds at 2026-07-28T17:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Chase Burns arrives with a 2.48 ERA and 10.5 K/9, the season-long power arm who should tilt the night at Great American Ball Park. Cleveland's lineup is in an acute slump — five straight losses and just 10 runs in that stretch — which makes Burns' swing-and-miss profile an even tougher draw. Books list the Reds around -167 (DraftKings) and the 8.5 total implies a middling expectation for scoring. A 94°F night that helps the ball carry is the main counterweight to Burns' edge, the kind of condition that can loosen up what otherwise looks like a pitcher-controlled game.

Watch list

Mariners @ Dodgers — Luis Castillo has dominated Los Angeles Dodgers — .208 BAA with a 33% strikeout rate over 122 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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