The Morning Card — August 1, 2026

The analyst's record: 91–87–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night: 7-7, −1.2u. Foster Griffin Under 4.5 Ks @ +119 was our best win (actual 3), while Paul Skenes Over 8.5 Ks @ +119 was our worst miss (actual 7).

Foster Griffin — Under 4.5 Ks (+119): WON
Michael Wacha — Over 4.5 Ks (+100): WON
Shane Drohan — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): WON
Brandon Young — Over 4.5 Ks (-130): WON
Nick Martinez — Under 4.5 Ks (-137): WON
Bryce Miller — Under 5.5 Ks (-137): WON
Jeffrey Springs — Under 4.5 Ks (-156): WON
Freddy Peralta — Over 5.5 Ks (+114): VOID
Shota Imanaga — Under 5.5 Ks (+111): LOST
Paul Skenes — Over 8.5 Ks (+119): LOST
Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Ks (-130): LOST
Tanner Bibee — Over 4.5 Ks (+100): LOST
Nathan Eovaldi — Over 6.5 Ks (+122): LOST
Carson Whisenhunt — Over 3.5 Ks (-150): LOST
Ranger Suarez — Over 5.5 Ks (+115): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Cardinals @ Jays at 2026-08-01T19:07:00.0000000+00:00.

Kevin Gausman takes the ball for Toronto; his 8.9 K/9 over 126.7 IP makes him the clear pitching edge in this spot. That matters because St. Louis has been skidding — 1-4 in their last five and outscored 26-11 — leaving little margin for error. Toronto’s lineup posts a 17.8% strikeout rate against lefties compared with a 21.2% team mark vs LHP, so the game will hinge on whether Gausman can outduel Quinn Mathews and keep the Cardinals’ struggling bats contained. If Gausman falters, George Springer’s red-hot run (.316 over his last 10 games) is the most obvious counterpunch to flip momentum.

Watch list

Rangers @ Astros — Jacob deGrom has dominated Houston Astros — .190 BAA with a 33% strikeout rate over 175 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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