The Morning Card — August 2, 2026

The analyst's record: 98–93–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost the night — 7-6 and −0.4u, plain and simple. Credit where it’s due: Cristopher Sanchez (11, +124) was the standout; the worst misses were Jacob deGrom (3, +100) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3, -102).

Cristopher Sanchez — Over 7.5 Ks (+124): WON
Jack Perkins — Over 4.5 Ks (-120): WON
Tyler Phillips — Under 3.5 Ks (-122): WON
Drew Rasmussen — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): WON
Parker Messick — Over 4.5 Ks (-151): WON
Tyler Mahle — Over 3.5 Ks (-159): WON
Max Fried — Over 4.5 Ks (-160): WON
Reynaldo Lopez — Over 4.5 Ks (+122): VOID
Jose Soriano — Over 5.5 Ks (-130): VOID
Kevin Gausman — Over 5.5 Ks (+110): LOST
Connor Prielipp — Over 5.5 Ks (-124): LOST
Braxton Ashcraft — Over 6.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Jacob deGrom — Over 6.5 Ks (+100): LOST
Luinder Avila — Over 3.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Over 6.5 Ks (-102): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Phillies @ Orioles at 2026-08-02T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Zack Wheeler's swing-and-miss stuff against an Orioles lineup that strikes out 24% is the matchup to watch. Wheeler carries a 2.53 ERA this season, and that matters because he can pile up punchouts while Jackson Holliday is red-hot (.441 over his last 10) and will be facing a right-hander. Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish (3.58 ERA, 8.5 K/9), giving the home side its own swing-and-miss arm that can blunt Philadelphia's offense. The market lists the Phillies at -132 with a 7.8 total, signaling a modest favorite and a middling-scoring game.

The angle

Zack Wheeler — Over 7.5 Strikeouts (Phillies @ Orioles, 2026-08-02T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Wheeler is punching out 10.7 batters per nine innings over 17 starts and the Orioles whiff at a 24% clip — that pairing sets him up to pile up strikeouts tonight. There is leash risk: his last start lasted only 3.0 innings with 6 strikeouts and 5 earned runs, though he followed a 7.0-inning, 9-strikeout outing two starts ago, so the ceiling is high. Give me Zack Wheeler Over 7.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -111 · DraftKings -137

K/9 12.6 · IP 59.3 · 15 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Cardinals @ Jays — Max Scherzer has dominated St. Louis Cardinals — .192 BAA with a 35% strikeout rate over 544 plate appearances across 8 seasons.

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