The Morning Card — August 3, 2026

The analyst's record: 105–100–2 since 2026-07-16. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 7-7 and finished −1.2u, so the loss leads. We nailed several starters — Gavin Williams Over 7.5 Ks @ +123 won (actual 10) and Jacob Misiorowski Over 9.5 Ks @ +106 won (actual 10) were the best wins, while Taj Bradley Over 6.5 Ks @ -111 (actual 2) was the worst miss.

Gavin Williams — Over 7.5 Ks (+123): WON
Jacob Misiorowski — Over 9.5 Ks (+106): WON
Sandy Alcantara — Over 4.5 Ks (-128): WON
Landen Roupp — Over 4.5 Ks (-138): WON
Max Scherzer — Over 3.5 Ks (-146): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 5.5 Ks (-150): WON
Kumar Rocker — Over 4.5 Ks (-154): WON
Mitch Keller — Over 4.5 Ks (-128): LOST
Gage Jump — Over 5.5 Ks (-104): LOST
Kyle Freeland — Under 4.5 Ks (-166): LOST
Gerrit Cole — Over 6.5 Ks (+102): LOST
Taj Bradley — Over 6.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Emmet Sheehan — Over 5.5 Ks (-122): LOST
Cade Cavalli — Over 4.5 Ks (-160): LOST

Tonight

8 games on the slate — the marquee: Nationals @ Phillies at 2026-08-03T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Aaron Nola's 5.64 ERA is the centerpiece tonight because the Phillies will lean on him to contain CJ Abrams, who has launched 4 HR in a recent power surge. Books list Philadelphia as a modest favorite at about -146, with a 9.5 total signaling a game where the market anticipates a fair amount of offense—putting extra weight on Nola's ability to settle in. Washington has dropped five straight, which makes Abrams' .298 mark against RHP this season a crucial counterpoint to Nola's season-long struggles.

The angle

Aaron Nola — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (Nationals @ Phillies, 2026-08-03T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Tonight feels like Nola's night to rack up punchouts: he averages 9.2 strikeouts every nine innings, and Washington's lineup strikes out at a 22.1% clip against right-handers this season. He hasn't been electric in his last two outings — 4 K and 4 K — with a 6 K effort the start before that, but the Nationals have scored just 13 runs in their last five and aren't a lineup that forces him to nibble. Give me Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel +114 · DraftKings +109

8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Padres @ Diamondbacks — Jake Cronenworth owns Brandon Pfaadt — 13-for-28 (.464) over 31 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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