The Morning Card — August 4, 2026

Last night

We went 5-3 and finished +0.5u, a profitable night highlighted by Ian Seymour Over 4.5 Ks @ -146 actually piling up 9. We did get burned by Cristian Javier Over 3.5 Ks @ -154 (actual 2), the night’s worst miss.

Michael King — Over 4.5 Ks (-111): WON
Ian Seymour — Over 4.5 Ks (-146): WON
Logan Webb — Over 4.5 Ks (-148): WON
Bubba Chandler — Over 4.5 Ks (-150): WON
Matthew Boyd — Under 5.5 Ks (-165): WON
Cristian Javier — Over 3.5 Ks (-154): LOST
Cam Schlittler — Over 7.5 Ks (+106): LOST
Aaron Nola — Over 5.5 Ks (+114): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Angels @ Orioles at 2026-08-04T22:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Grayson Rodriguez has been getting hit hard, with a 7.84 ERA over his last five starts and a 7.98 mark on the season. Oddsmakers make Baltimore a short favorite — FanDuel shows -142 — and the consensus total sits at 8.5, signaling an expectation for a moderately higher-scoring game. That matters because Jackson Holliday is red-hot, batting .441 over his last 10 games, and Gunnar Henderson brings a long history of success against the Angels, so Rodriguez’s recent struggles are the game’s central storyline.

The angle

Grayson Rodriguez — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Angels @ Orioles, 2026-08-04T22:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Rodriguez carries a 7.98 earned-run average in 44 innings and is averaging 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but his last five starts' strikeout totals are 6, 3, 3, 0 and 1 — he struck out six on 2026-07-29 but has mostly produced modest totals and he strikes out 23.4% of right-handed batters. Against an Orioles lineup that also strikes out 23.4% versus right-handers, I’m taking 2. Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -147 · Fanatics -150 · FanDuel -154

ERA 7.84 · K/9 5.7 · 9 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Rays @ Rockies — Freddy Peralta has dominated Colorado Rockies — .224 BAA with a 31% strikeout rate over 248 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

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