The Morning Card — August 5, 2026

Last night

We lost the night — 5-10 and −6.2u — plain and simple. We can at least credit Logan Henderson Over 6.5 Ks @ +110 (actual 8) as the standout win, while our worst miss was Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 Ks @ -106 (actual 0).

Logan Henderson — Over 6.5 Ks (+110): WON
Davis Martin — Under 4.5 Ks (-128): WON
Hunter Dobbins — Over 3.5 Ks (-154): WON
Zack Littell — Under 3.5 Ks (-156): WON
Eduardo Rodriguez — Under 4.5 Ks (-165): WON
Joe Ryan — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): LOST
Grant Holmes — Under 4.5 Ks (-115): LOST
MacKenzie Gore — Over 6.5 Ks (+102): LOST
Grayson Rodriguez — Under 5.5 Ks (-147): LOST
Tarik Skubal — Over 7.5 Ks (-130): LOST
Trey Yesavage — Over 5.5 Ks (-106): LOST
Emerson Hancock — Under 5.5 Ks (-158): LOST
JT Ginn — Over 5.5 Ks (+117): LOST
Freddy Peralta — Over 5.5 Ks (+122): LOST
Sean Manaea — Under 4.5 Ks (+103): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Rockies at 2026-08-05T19:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Coors Field boosts run scoring by 17% and suppresses strikeouts, a combination that magnifies what could be a high-offense night. The market lists the Rays as favorites at -154 while the consensus total sits at 11.5, signaling expectations for plenty of scoring. That matters because both starters induce few whiffs — Nick Martinez at 4.9 K/9 and Tomoyuki Sugano at 5.2 K/9 — so Coors’ environment should leave more balls in play. Watch Chandler Simpson, batting .405 over his last 10 games, and Willi Castro, who has hit four homers in his last 10, as Coors will turn contact into runs.

The angle

Nick Martinez — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Rockies, 2026-08-05T19:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Coors softens strikeouts and this matchup doesn't scream swing-and-miss — Nick Martinez averages 4.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has gone six innings with just two strikeouts on July 31 and had a start with zero strikeouts on July 20. The Rockies' lineup tonight strikes out 20.3% against right-handed pitching, but Martinez's own strikeout rates versus lefties and righties are 14.6% and 11.3% respectively, and Coors' five percent suppression of strikeouts dents the chance he reaches four. Give me Nick Martinez Under 3.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -111 · FanDuel -115

7 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Jays @ Astros — Jeremy Peña owns Jameson Taillon — 5-for-11 (.455) over 11 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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