The Morning Card — August 7, 2026

Last night

The night lost: Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Ks @ -122 let us down when he had 5. We finished 5-1, +3.0u, and while Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Ks @ -102 was the standout with 10, that one miss was the evening’s defining blemish.

Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Ks (-102): WON
Michael Wacha — Under 4.5 Ks (-121): WON
Mason Barnett — Over 4.5 Ks (-128): WON
Nolan McLean — Over 5.5 Ks (-138): WON
Ranger Suarez — Under 6.5 Ks (-150): WON
Braxton Ashcraft — Over 5.5 Ks (-122): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Jays @ Phillies at 2026-08-07T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Zack Wheeler's dominance is the game's hinge: he arrives with a 2.53 ERA and a 10.7 K/9, the reason Philadelphia is expected to control the mound. The market makes Philadelphia roughly a -210 favorite with an 8.0 total, signaling modest scoring and a clear home-side lean. The counterweight is a visibly taxed Phillies bullpen — relievers have racked up 12.0 relief innings over the last three days — and Citizens Bank's 11 mph wind blowing out to center, which could help hitters if Wheeler can't go deep. Add a specific wrinkle: Jesús Sánchez is 9-for-25 lifetime against Wheeler, so a single Philadelphia slip could be amplified by a Jays bat who has his number.

The angle

Zack Wheeler — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Jays @ Phillies, 2026-08-07T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Wheeler brings the power stuff into a yard that helps him, and he’s punched out 10, then 9, then 6 in his last three turns while Citizens Bank nudges strikeouts up 3%. This season he’s carved both sides—32.3% of right-handed bats and 30.2% of lefties have gone down on strikes. The Jays have some swing in them right now—Kazuma Okamoto has 9 strikeouts in 22 trips, Brandon Valenzuela 6 in 15, Nathan Lukes 4 in 19—and with the Phillies’ bullpen gassed, he should be allowed to chase this himself. Give me Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings +114

15 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks — Mookie Betts has taken Merrill Kelly deep 4 times in 46 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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