The Morning Card — August 8, 2026

The analyst's record: 15–10 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 6-4 (+1.0u) last night; we’ll take the win, highlighted by Payton Tolle’s 14 Ks. Our worst miss was Shane Baz Under 5.5 Ks — he had 9.

Tyler Mahle — Over 5.5 Ks (-105): WON
Payton Tolle — Over 6.5 Ks (-106): WON
Drew Rasmussen — Over 5.5 Ks (-106): WON
Parker Messick — Over 5.5 Ks (-125): WON
Roki Sasaki — Over 4.5 Ks (-148): WON
Tyler Phillips — Under 4.5 Ks (-154): WON
Keider Montero — Under 3.5 Ks (+120): LOST
Shane Drohan — Over 5.5 Ks (+105): LOST
Zack Wheeler — Over 6.5 Ks (+114): LOST
Shane Baz — Under 5.5 Ks (-142): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Braves @ Yankees at 2026-08-08T19:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Chris Sale has been dominant this season (2.05 ERA) while Gerrit Cole carries a pronounced history of trouble against Atlanta (.321 BAA), making tonight a duel defined by Sale's swing-and-miss and Cole's matchup baggage. The market sides with Atlanta — books list the Braves around -134 to -145 on the moneyline, and a 7.5 total implies bookmakers expect roughly a handful of runs. That matters because Atlanta's offense is hot, with 25 runs in their last five games and Matt Olson arriving on a 6 HR surge over his last 10, a direct test of Cole's struggles. The Yankees' lineup also whiffs a lot against lefties (26.4% K rate), so how many chances Sale allows could determine whether Cole's history swings this one.

The angle

Chris Sale — Over 7.5 Strikeouts (Braves @ Yankees, 2026-08-08T19:05:00.0000000+00:00)

The Yankees have been swinging through lefties, with this lineup going down in 26.4 percent of their trips against southpaws; Ben Rice has 8 strikeouts in 22 plate appearances and Spencer Jones is 0-for-19 with six more. Chris Sale rolls in with 9 and 11 strikeouts in his last two starts and a long history of carving the Yankees — a .233 average against and 32.8 percent of Yankees he’s faced fanned over 418 plate appearances. Give me Chris Sale Over 7.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -125 · DraftKings -137

BAA .233 · K rate 33% · 20 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Jays @ Phillies — Max Scherzer has dominated Philadelphia Phillies — .225 BAA with a 31% strikeout rate over 754 plate appearances across 10 seasons.

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