The Morning Card — August 9, 2026

The analyst's record: 20–14 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 5-4 and +0.2u, taking credit for the winners without gloating; Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 Ks @ +126 was the standout with 9. The night still stung — our worst miss was Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Ks @ +116, who had 3.

Jacob deGrom — Over 7.5 Ks (+126): WON
Chris Sale — Over 7.5 Ks (-125): WON
Chase Burns — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): WON
Max Scherzer — Over 3.5 Ks (-136): WON
Taj Bradley — Over 5.5 Ks (-152): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 5.5 Ks (+110): VOID
Seth Lugo — Under 3.5 Ks (+126): LOST
Gavin Williams — Over 7.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Peter Lambert — Over 5.5 Ks (+144): LOST
Matthew Liberatore — Over 5.5 Ks (+116): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Jays @ Phillies at 2026-08-09T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Jesús Luzardo is the pivot here — he brings a 3.62 ERA and a 10.8 K/9, and his swing-and-miss stuff is the clearest lever for the home team. That matters because the Blue Jays have a 20.6% strikeout rate against southpaws, so quick, dominant innings from Luzardo can stifle their game plan. The counterweight is Shane Bieber's uneven season — a 5.11 ERA and just a 6.8 K/9 — which hands Philadelphia extra chances to work counts and pressure a visitor bullpen already carrying heavy recent usage. Add a warm 91°F afternoon and a Citizens Bank Park boost to strikeouts of 3%, and the key watch is whether Luzardo can pile up innings to protect tired relievers and blunt Bieber's matchup vulnerabilities.

The angle

Jesus Luzardo — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Jays @ Phillies, 2026-08-09T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park adds +3% to strikeouts, and Jesus Luzardo rolls in hot — eight scoreless with seven punchouts against Washington, and he’s stacked seven, five, and nine strikeouts across his last three turns. Toronto has struck out in 21% of its plate appearances against left-handers this year (1231 plate appearances), while Luzardo has put away 27.5% of the right-handers he’s faced; with Brandon Valenzuela fanning eight times in sixteen trips and Kazuma Okamoto ten in twenty-two, this spot leans to the lefty’s power. Give me Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel +100 · DraftKings -102

12 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Guardians @ Sox — Steven Kwan owns Davis Martin — 5-for-11 (.455) over 13 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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