The Morning Card — August 10, 2026

The analyst's record: 24–21 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The night lost — we went 4-7 and finished −3.8u. We did credit Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 Ks (12) as our best win, but the damage came when Eduardo Rodriguez Under 3.5 Ks returned 9 and blew the card.

Jesus Luzardo — Over 6.5 Ks (+100): WON
Jacob Misiorowski — Over 8.5 Ks (-120): WON
Cristian Javier — Under 3.5 Ks (-133): WON
Grant Holmes — Under 5.5 Ks (-153): WON
Jared Jones — Over 5.5 Ks (+124): LOST
Emerson Hancock — Over 4.5 Ks (-106): LOST
Eduardo Rodriguez — Under 3.5 Ks (+128): LOST
Brady Singer — Over 4.5 Ks (+104): LOST
JT Ginn — Over 4.5 Ks (+119): LOST
Grayson Rodriguez — Under 5.5 Ks (-133): LOST
Joey Cantillo — Over 5.5 Ks (-123): LOST

Tonight

10 games on the slate — the marquee: Rangers @ Angels at 2026-08-11T01:38:00.0000000+00:00.

Reid Detmers has been especially brutal on Texas, holding Rangers hitters to a .219 batting average and a 32% strikeout rate. That split shows up in micro form: Ezequiel Duran is just 2-for-22 lifetime against Detmers, underscoring why the Rangers’ lineup has often stalled when he starts. Detmers’ swing-and-miss profile is amplified at Angel Stadium, which increases strikeouts by 5%, even as Texas arrives with momentum — 4-1 over its last five games — so the key will be whether the park hands him extra punch or the Rangers’ recent form forces a different approach.

The angle

Reid Detmers — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Rangers @ Angels, 2026-08-11T01:38:00.0000000+00:00)

Detmers sees the Rangers and smells blood; over five seasons they've managed only a .219 average against him, and he's cut down 32.1% of those 318 plate appearances. This Rangers group swings through lefties often — a 25.1% strikeout rate this season for tonight's lineup — and Ezequiel Duran in particular is 2-for-22 with a 45.5% strikeout rate against Detmers. Angel Stadium adds a little more lift to punchouts, about a 5% bump, and Detmers’ recent totals (nine against Houston, six against St. Louis, five against Baltimore) say the bite is there. Give me Reid Detmers Over 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -156 · FanDuel -162

BAA .219 · K rate 32% · 14 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Phillies @ Cardinals — Jordan Walker has hit safely in 9 straight games.

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