The Morning Card — August 11, 2026

The analyst's record: 27–27 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 3-6 and the loss leads: we finished −2.6u. We did hit three winners — Hunter Dobbins, Logan Henderson and Christian Scott — with Logan Henderson the standout (Over 5.5 Ks, actual 7); the worst miss was Blade Tidwell (Under 3.5 Ks, actual 6).

Hunter Dobbins — Over 3.5 Ks (+122): WON
Logan Henderson — Over 5.5 Ks (+112): WON
Christian Scott — Over 5.5 Ks (+106): WON
Reid Detmers — Over 6.5 Ks (-156): LOST
Blade Tidwell — Under 3.5 Ks (+112): LOST
Tarik Skubal — Over 7.5 Ks (-118): LOST
Sonny Gray — Over 4.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Trevor Rogers — Over 4.5 Ks (-140): LOST
Freddy Peralta — Under 4.5 Ks (+106): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Pirates @ Marlins at 2026-08-11T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

The game's spine is a duel of high‑strikeout youngsters: Eury Pérez (9.9 K/9) against Paul Skenes (11.2 K/9). The market lists Pittsburgh a narrow favorite (around -112) and posts a 7.0 total, pricing this as a close, modest‑scoring affair between two swing‑and‑miss arms. Marlins hitters carry a 19.8% strikeout rate against RHP this season, a detail that matters directly against Skenes' swing‑and‑miss profile. If Pérez can’t generate Ks the other way, Miami’s recent heat — Javier Sanoja (.355 over his last 10) and Jakob Marsee (.290 over his last 10) — provides a clear counterpunch.

The angle

Paul Skenes — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Pirates @ Marlins, 2026-08-11T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Miami’s middle has been swinging through everything: Griffin Conine has 8 strikeouts in 19 trips, Heriberto Hernández 8 in 20, Owen Caissie 5 in 20, and Joe Mack 4 in 14. Paul Skenes (Pirates) has the antidote — 6, 7, and 11 strikeouts in his last three — and he’s carved these Marlins before, holding them to a .206 average while fanning 38.8% of them. Give me Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: Fanatics -145 · FanDuel -146 · DraftKings -146

13 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Royals @ Dodgers — Freddie Freeman owns Michael Wacha — 8-for-17 (.471) over 22 plate appearances across 6 seasons.

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