The Morning Card — August 12, 2026

The analyst's record: 31–37 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We tanked last night, going 4-10 for −6.0u. Our one line of credit was Sean Burke Over 7.5 Ks @ +109 (actual 8), while the worst miss was Blake Snell Under 6.5 Ks @ -158 (actual 10).

Martin Perez — Under 3.5 Ks (+130): WON
Sean Burke — Over 7.5 Ks (+109): WON
Shota Imanaga — Under 5.5 Ks (-122): WON
Bailey Ober — Under 4.5 Ks (-124): WON
Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Ks (-132): LOST
Blake Snell — Under 6.5 Ks (-158): LOST
Kyle Harrison — Over 5.5 Ks (+114): LOST
Paul Skenes — Over 6.5 Ks (-145): LOST
Cody Bradford — Over 4.5 Ks (-146): LOST
Drew Anderson — Under 3.5 Ks (-132): LOST
Tomoyuki Sugano — Under 2.5 Ks (+116): LOST
Hunter Brown — Over 5.5 Ks (-120): LOST
Nick Martinez — Under 3.5 Ks (-144): LOST
Ryan Weathers — Over 6.5 Ks (+120): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Orioles @ Twins at 2026-08-12T17:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Shane Baz arrives with a 3.63 ERA on the season, opposite Zebby Matthews, who's been pummeled to a 7.20 ERA over his last five starts. The market leans to the home side — Twins are favored around -120 and the consensus total of 8.5 suggests a moderate scoring game. That matters because Royce Lewis is red-hot, batting .415 over his last 10 games, yet he’s only .241 versus RHP this season, making him a key test of whether Matthews' slide continues.

Watch list

Brewers @ Padres — Robbie Ray has dominated Milwaukee Brewers — .219 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 181 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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