The Morning Card — August 13, 2026

The analyst's record: 34–42 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night, finishing 3-5 and −2.0u. Credit goes to Tyler Mahle Over 5.5 Ks @ +130 (actual 7), while the worst miss was Luis Castillo Under 5.5 Ks @ -107 (actual 10).

Tyler Mahle — Over 5.5 Ks (+130): WON
Carmen Mlodzinski — Under 3.5 Ks (+101): WON
Ryan Feltner — Under 3.5 Ks (-155): WON
Zack Wheeler — Over 5.5 Ks (-130): LOST
David Peterson — Under 4.5 Ks (-143): LOST
Luis Castillo — Under 5.5 Ks (-107): LOST
Eric Lauer — Under 4.5 Ks (-164): LOST
Drew Rasmussen — Over 5.5 Ks (+130): LOST

Tonight

9 games on the slate — the marquee: Mariners @ Yankees at 2026-08-13T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Max Fried has routinely shut down Seattle — limiting Mariners hitters to a .146 batting average against him — and he arrives with a 2.88 ERA. The Mariners are 0-5 recently, a skid Fried's stinginess against Seattle tends to exploit. FanDuel lists the Yankees at -136 and the game total at 7.5, a market that leans on Fried's matchup edge and implies modest scoring. Brendan Donovan has hit .372 in 50 plate appearances against New York, yet Fried's history blanking Seattle makes Donovan's edge a key counterpoint to monitor.

The angle

Logan Gilbert — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Mariners @ Yankees, 2026-08-13T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined, this patched-up Yankees order has been swinging through a lot. The Yankees have struck out in 24% of their trips against right-handers this year, and this group has been whiffing — Heliot Ramos has 8 strikeouts in 21 plate appearances over his last 5 games, Ben Rice 8 in 22, Trent Grisham 6 in 20. Logan Gilbert (Mariners) is set up to lean on his workload: 96 and 95 pitches and 6 strikeouts in each of his last two starts, plus a 10-strikeout outing in mid-July and 6 days between outings. Give me Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -146 · DraftKings -155

K/9 9.3 · IP 65.7 · 12 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Phillies @ Twins — Josh Bell has taken Aaron Nola deep 3 times in 46 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

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