The Morning Card — August 14, 2026

The analyst's record: 38–45 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 4-3 and +1.0u, so the night won and we’ll take the credit while keeping it sober. The standout was Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 Ks @ +121 (actual 10); the worst miss was Braxton Ashcraft Under 5.5 Ks @ +105 (actual 10).

Cade Cavalli — Over 5.5 Ks (+121): WON
Parker Messick — Over 5.5 Ks (+111): WON
Davis Martin — Under 4.5 Ks (-103): WON
Logan Gilbert — Over 6.5 Ks (-146): WON
Taj Bradley — Over 5.5 Ks (-130): LOST
Braxton Ashcraft — Under 5.5 Ks (+105): LOST
Jacob deGrom — Over 6.5 Ks (-120): LOST

Tonight

14 games on the slate — the marquee: Cardinals @ Cubs at 2026-08-14T18:20:00.0000000+00:00.

Matthew Liberatore’s renewed swing-and-miss (9.3 K/9) is the spine here — he’s a real strikeout weapon against a Cubs lineup that lives on punchouts, which makes K totals the matchup’s hinge. Despite that, the market still leans strongly to the home side, with the Cubs priced at -183 and the Cardinals at +150. Chicago’s hitters swing and miss at roughly a 24% clip against lefties, and Ian Happ is a glaring mismatch at just 1-for-11 (.091) lifetime vs. Liberatore, concentrating the strikeout risk atop the order. With Wrigley playing pitcher-friendly (-8% runs) and the Cubs’ bullpen showing heavy recent usage, Liberatore piling up punchouts could be the decisive factor in a low-scoring game.

The angle

Matthew Liberatore — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Cardinals @ Cubs, 2026-08-14T18:20:00.0000000+00:00)

Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals) just saw these Cubs and punched out five in 3.2 innings, and this lineup has been whiff-prone against lefties, striking out 24.7 percent this season. He’s stacked recent strikeout games with seven against Toronto and seven against the Angels, and the order still has soft spots: Pete Crow-Armstrong has 11 strikeouts in his last five games, and Ian Happ is 1-for-11 with four strikeouts in 16 trips against Liberatore while hitting .161 against lefties this year. Give me Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings +110 · Fanatics +105 · FanDuel +100

K/9 9.3 · IP 47.3 · 10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Sox @ Tigers — Javier Báez owns Sean Newcomb — 7-for-14 (.500) over 14 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

More cards

← August 13, 2026 August 15, 2026 →

Oct 2 · Oct 1 · Sep 30 · Sep 29 · Sep 28 · Sep 27 · Sep 26 · Sep 25 · Sep 24 · Sep 23