The Morning Card — August 15, 2026

The analyst's record: 42–50 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The loss leads — we went 4-5 and lost −1.6u. We did collect four winners, most notably Chris Bassitt Under 3.5 Ks @ -165 (3); our worst miss was Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Ks @ -113 (7).

Matthew Liberatore — Over 4.5 Ks (+110): WON
Jackson Jobe — Under 4.5 Ks (-109): WON
Kumar Rocker — Under 4.5 Ks (-130): WON
Chris Bassitt — Under 3.5 Ks (-165): WON
Sandy Alcantara — Over 5.5 Ks (-113): LOST
Brandon Pfaadt — Under 3.5 Ks (-113): LOST
Michael King — Over 4.5 Ks (+132): LOST
Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Ks (+126): LOST
Landen Roupp — Over 5.5 Ks (-130): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Tigers at 2026-08-15T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Troy Melton has been dominant, posting a 1.46 ERA this season while racking up 9.1 K/9, a tough matchup for a White Sox roster that can miss a lot of bats. Books make the Tigers modest favorites (-134) and an 8.0 total signals expectations for a mid-range scoring game that dovetails with Melton’s form. The White Sox lineup strikes out 24.4% versus RHP, so Melton’s swing-and-miss stuff could suppress rallies. Anthony Kay had a 6.0-IP start allowing 2 ER in his last outing, giving Chicago at least one reasonably steady arm to keep this one close.

The angle

Troy Melton — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Sox @ Tigers, 2026-08-15T17:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Cloudy Comerica with the breeze blowing in sets a stage for contact, and Troy Melton (Tigers) has obliged lately: three straight scoreless starts without a strikeout binge — just five, four and five — even while throwing 92, 97 and 92 pitches. Chicago has been loud at the plate, 31 runs in their last five, and the core that has seen Melton hasn’t fanned much against him, with Andrew Benintendi and Colson Montgomery at one strikeout apiece in ten trips and Miguel Vargas at two in eight. Give me Troy Melton Under 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -155 · FanDuel -158

K/9 9.1 · IP 59.3 · 9 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Cardinals @ Cubs — Matthew Boyd has dominated St. Louis Cardinals — .186 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 202 plate appearances across 6 seasons.

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