The Morning Card — August 16, 2026

The analyst's record: 53–53 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 11-3 and +7.6u on the night. Credit where due: Reid Detmers Over 6.5 Ks @ +116 went off for 11 Ks as our best win, while Joey Cantillo Under 5.5 Ks @ -162 was the worst miss, losing with 7 Ks.

Cam Schlittler — Over 6.5 Ks (+122): WON
Brady Singer — Under 4.5 Ks (+118): WON
Sonny Gray — Over 5.5 Ks (+118): WON
Reid Detmers — Over 6.5 Ks (+116): WON
Michael McGreevy — Over 3.5 Ks (+112): WON
Jesus Luzardo — Over 6.5 Ks (-104): WON
Ian Seymour — Over 6.5 Ks (-113): WON
Sean Manaea — Over 5.5 Ks (-128): WON
Emerson Hancock — Over 4.5 Ks (-129): WON
Michael Lorenzen — Under 3.5 Ks (-145): WON
Troy Melton — Under 5.5 Ks (-155): WON
Jacob Misiorowski — Over 8.5 Ks (-120): LOST
Joey Cantillo — Under 5.5 Ks (-162): LOST
MacKenzie Gore — Over 6.5 Ks (+128): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Orioles @ Rays at 2026-08-16T16:15:00.0000000+00:00.

Freddy Peralta's start is the focal point after he’s been getting tagged, carrying an 8.10 ERA over his last 5 starts. That matters because the Orioles bring a red-hot Pete Alonso (.410 over his last 10 games) and a lineup that posts a 23.6% strikeout rate versus RHP tonight. The counterweight: Peralta still averages 8.8 K/9 this season, and Tropicana Field plays pitcher-friendly (-8% runs vs average), which could blunt the upside if he’s hittable.

The angle

Freddy Peralta — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Orioles @ Rays, 2026-08-16T16:15:00.0000000+00:00)

Peralta’s recent ride has been rough, and Baltimore’s big bats are arriving on time. Over his last five turns he’s worn an 8.10 mark, and the strikeouts have thinned — 5, 3, and 3 in his last three, with outings of just 3.2 and 4.0 innings mixed in. With Pete Alonso at .410 over his last 10 games and Gunnar Henderson at .421 over his last 5, there’s pressure enough to keep him from piling up punchouts. Give me Freddy Peralta (Rays) Under 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -160 · FanDuel -170

ERA 8.10 · K/9 8.9 · 8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Yankees @ Jays — Dylan Cease has dominated New York Yankees — .210 BAA with a 35% strikeout rate over 161 plate appearances across 6 seasons.

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