The Morning Card — August 17, 2026

The analyst's record: 60–57 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 7-4 and +2.1u, and we’ll take the night — Christian Scott Over 5.5 Ks @ -122 was the standout win with 7. The misses were plain: Blade Tidwell Over 4.5 Ks @ -106 was the worst miss with 1, with Eury Perez Over 6.5 Ks @ +100, Sean Burke Over 5.5 Ks @ -125 and Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Ks @ -111 also coming up short.

Trevor Rogers — Over 4.5 Ks (+116): WON
Dean Kremer — Over 4.5 Ks (+106): WON
Michael Soroka — Over 4.5 Ks (+104): WON
Christian Scott — Over 5.5 Ks (-122): WON
Cody Bradford — Under 4.5 Ks (-137): WON
Patrick Sandoval — Over 4.5 Ks (-143): WON
Ryan Johnson — Under 4.5 Ks (-171): WON
Eury Perez — Over 6.5 Ks (+100): LOST
Blade Tidwell — Over 4.5 Ks (-106): LOST
Sean Burke — Over 5.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Hunter Brown — Over 5.5 Ks (-111): LOST

Tonight

11 games on the slate — the marquee: Orioles @ Rays at 2026-08-17T22:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Shane McClanahan arrives with a clear workload watch: his pitch totals dropped from 87 to 49 across his last three outings, so a short leash is plausible tonight. That matters because he carries a 2.86 ERA this season and Tropicana Field boosts strikeouts by 6%, meaning a short, high‑K stint could suppress scoring quickly. Complicating the picture, Orioles hitters strike out 27.9% of the time against lefties, so McClanahan’s quick, strikeout-heavy outing could still neutralize Baltimore before the Rays turn to a bullpen that has already thrown 16.3 relief innings in the last three days.

The angle

Shane McClanahan — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Orioles @ Rays, 2026-08-17T22:05:00.0000000+00:00)

The Orioles have struck out 27.9% of the time against lefties, and Tropicana Field boosts strikeouts by 6%, but this is about the leash. Shane McClanahan’s (Rays) pitch count has slid from 87 to 71 to 49, he’s been idle for 18 days, and he’s finished with just 3 strikeouts in each of those three starts. Give me Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings +101 · FanDuel +100

6 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Rockies — Blake Snell has dominated Colorado Rockies — .194 BAA with a 39% strikeout rate over 314 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

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