The Morning Card — August 18, 2026

The analyst's record: 62–63 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 2-6, −4.0u; when the night lost, the loss leads. Our best win was Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 Ks @ +101 (actual 3), and our worst miss was Luis Castillo Over 4.5 Ks @ -115 (actual 1).

Shane McClanahan — Under 4.5 Ks (+101): WON
Michael Wacha — Under 4.5 Ks (-105): WON
Luis Castillo — Over 4.5 Ks (-115): LOST
Martin Perez — Over 3.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Blake Snell — Over 6.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Cristopher Sanchez — Over 6.5 Ks (-148): LOST
Nolan McLean — Over 5.5 Ks (-140): LOST
Carmen Mlodzinski — Under 2.5 Ks (+110): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Yankees @ Orioles at 2026-08-18T22:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Carlos Rodón has dominated Baltimore, posting a .233 batting average against and generating a 29% strikeout rate. The market makes the Yankees a narrow favorite (FanDuel -110) and sets the total at 8.5, implying a middling-scoring game. That history matters because Baltimore chases lefties, striking out 26.8% of the time versus LHP this season. Pete Alonso’s recent surge is a wild card, but he is only .250 against left‑hand pitching this year, a notable counterpoint when Rodón toes the rubber.

The angle

Carlos Rodon — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Yankees @ Orioles, 2026-08-18T22:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Camden Yards gets a lefty with teeth tonight, and this Orioles order has been offering — they’ve struck out 26.8% against left-handers, and even across the season it sits at 25.9%. Carlos Rodón (Yankees) has hounded Baltimore, holding them to a .233 average and fanning 29.5% over 190 plate appearances; even Pete Alonso has worn it, with 5 strikeouts in 11 plate appearances against him. Give me Carlos Rodón Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -151 · FanDuel -156

BAA .233 · K rate 29% · 11 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Angels @ Astros — Cristian Javier has dominated Los Angeles Angels — .196 BAA with a 33% strikeout rate over 271 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

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