The Morning Card — August 19, 2026

The analyst's record: 66–67 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost on the night: 4-4, −0.5u. Our best win was Carson Whisenhunt Under 3.5 Ks (+102) with an actual 1, and the worst miss was Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Ks (−121) who recorded a 4.

Robbie Ray — Under 4.5 Ks (+105): WON
Carson Whisenhunt — Under 3.5 Ks (+102): WON
Bryce Miller — Under 5.5 Ks (-132): WON
Ryan Feltner — Under 3.5 Ks (-144): WON
Jack Perkins — Under 3.5 Ks (+103): VOID
Braxton Ashcraft — Over 5.5 Ks (-121): LOST
Tyler Mahle — Over 4.5 Ks (-122): LOST
Zack Wheeler — Over 7.5 Ks (+109): LOST
Carlos Rodon — Over 4.5 Ks (-151): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Padres @ Mets at 2026-08-19T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Michael King arrives with a 3.41 ERA this season, which matters because the Mets’ projected lineup strikes out at a 22.2% clip against right-handers. Books make the Padres the modest favorite — FanDuel lists them at -142 — and the total is 8.5, signaling a middling expected run environment. The main counterweight is Bo Bichette’s red-hot form (.417) and Robert Stock’s 6.57 ERA in a very small sample, a combo that adds volatility and could blunt King’s edge.

The angle

Michael King — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Padres @ Mets, 2026-08-19T17:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Tonight at Citi Field, Michael King (Padres) faces a Mets order swinging through everything: over their last five games, Francisco Alvarez has 11 strikeouts in 19 plate appearances, A.J. Ewing has 9 in 21, and Brett Baty has 7 in 19. King has been steady and stretched out, throwing between 83 and 104 pitches in each of his last five turns and fanning 7 against Atlanta, 6 against Colorado and Houston, and 5 against Arizona. With the Mets striking out in 22.2 percent of their trips against right-handers this season, the table is set. Give me Michael King Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -147 · FanDuel -148

10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Rockies — Shohei Ohtani crushes it in Coors Field — .388 there vs .283 overall, across 6 seasons.

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