The Morning Card — August 20, 2026

The analyst's record: 72–71 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 6-4 for +1.0u. Credit where due: Cade Cavalli Over 5.5 Ks @ -108 (actual 11) was the standout. The worst miss was Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Ks @ +102 (actual 8).

Clay Holmes — Under 4.5 Ks (+100): WON
Cade Cavalli — Over 5.5 Ks (-108): WON
Taj Bradley — Over 5.5 Ks (-117): WON
Walbert Urena — Over 4.5 Ks (-123): WON
Aaron Nola — Over 5.5 Ks (-136): WON
Parker Messick — Over 5.5 Ks (-160): WON
Drew Rasmussen — Over 5.5 Ks (+134): LOST
Brandon Pfaadt — Under 3.5 Ks (+102): LOST
Michael King — Over 4.5 Ks (-147): LOST
Logan Gilbert — Over 6.5 Ks (-106): LOST

Tonight

9 games on the slate — the marquee: Cardinals @ Reds at 2026-08-20T16:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Alec Burleson's matchup against Brady Singer is the one to watch — Burleson is 5-for-9 in his career against Singer. Burleson hits right-handers well, batting .332 this season, which matters against Singer's 4.58 ERA. With the Cardinals piling up 25 runs over their last five games, Burleson's edge over Singer carries extra leverage for a potentially decisive swing.

The angle

Michael McGreevy — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Cardinals @ Reds, 2026-08-20T16:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Cincinnati’s order is chasing right now: as a team they strike out 25.5% against right-handers, and this week Elly De La Cruz has 9 strikeouts in 21 plate appearances, Eugenio Suárez 7 in 20, and Tyler Stephenson 7 in 13. Michael McGreevy (Cardinals) has rung up 6, 4, and 5 in his last three while logging 102 pitches in back-to-back starts, so the leash is there for him to lean into this swing-and-miss group. Give me Michael McGreevy Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -104 · FanDuel -111

ERA 6.00 · K/9 7.5 · 10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Yankees @ Orioles — Gerrit Cole has dominated Baltimore Orioles — .194 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 423 plate appearances across 8 seasons.

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