AuraStreak · Morning Card archive
The Morning Card — September 26, 2026
The analyst's record: 76–74 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.
Last night
We went 1-5, −4.0u — when the night lost, the loss leads. Our lone credit was Gavin Williams Under 6.5 Ks at +104 (actual 4); the worst miss was Cristopher Sanchez Under 5.5 Ks at +122 (actual 10).
- Gavin Williams — Under 6.5 Ks (+104): WON
- Sean Burke — Under 6.5 Ks (-138): LOST
- Bryce Miller — Under 6.5 Ks (-150): LOST
- Cristopher Sanchez — Under 5.5 Ks (+122): LOST
- Jackson Jobe — Under 5.5 Ks (-141): LOST
- Eury Perez — Under 4.5 Ks (+100): LOST
Tonight
13 games on the slate — the marquee: Mets @ Nationals at 2026-09-26T16:35:00.0000000+00:00.
Jonah Tong has been getting hit lately — a 6.55 ERA over his last five starts — and that matters because Washington’s lineup posts only a 19.5% strikeout rate against right-handers, raising the payoff when they time a struggling arm. The market still leans Mets — roughly -136 on FanDuel — and a consensus total of 8.5 suggests books expect only modest scoring, so Tong’s slide looks like the primary upside risk priced into the game. The counterweight is Connelly Early’s steadiness (3.44 ERA this season) plus a 16 mph wind blowing in at Nationals Park that knocks balls down, a combo that should limit blowups even if Tong falters.
The angle
Jonah Tong — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Mets @ Nationals, 2026-09-26T16:35:00.0000000+00:00)
The Nationals don’t swing through much against righties — this lineup sits at 19.9 percent and the club as a whole at 21.0 — and Nationals Park quietly trims strikeouts by nine percent. Jonah Tong (Mets) has punched out 22.7 percent for his career, 22.3 this season, and 24.5 over his last ten, but he’s coming in off six days after a 95-pitch grind and into a contact-first night. Give me Jonah Tong Under 4.5 strikeouts.
Prices: DraftKings -119 · FanDuel -125 · Fanatics -125
ERA 6.55 · K/9 9.8 · 11 Ks over his last 2 starts
Watch list
- Pirates @ Tigers — Kirby Yates has dominated Detroit Tigers — .182 BAA with a 34% strikeout rate over 59 plate appearances across 8 seasons.
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