The Morning Card — September 27, 2026

The analyst's record: 79–77 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 3-3 and finished −0.8u; when the night lost, the loss leads — plain and simple. We do give credit for Blake Snell Under 7.5 Ks @ -144 (won; actual 3) as the standout win, while the worst miss was Jonah Tong Under 4.5 Ks @ -119 (lost; actual 9).

Nathan Eovaldi — Under 3.5 Ks (-125): WON
Blake Snell — Under 7.5 Ks (-144): WON
Ryan Johnson — Under 4.5 Ks (-146): WON
Trey Yesavage — Over 3.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Jonah Tong — Under 4.5 Ks (-119): LOST
Hayden Wesneski — Under 4.5 Ks (-150): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Orioles @ Yankees at 2026-09-27T17:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Shane Baz's steadiness is the game's spine: he carries a 4.00 ERA across 184.7 innings this season, and several regular Yankees have produced little against him in past matchups. That matters because the Yankees' projected lineup strikes out 23.1% of the time versus righties while Baz still misses bats at 7.7 K/9, a combination that can shut down rallies. Books make New York the favorite at -141 on DraftKings with a 7.5 total, but Baltimore arrives hot and Pete Alonso's power surge makes Baz's start the primary thing to watch.

Watch list

Rays @ Phillies — Zack Wheeler has dominated Tampa Bay Rays — .218 BAA with a 35% strikeout rate over 143 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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