The Morning Card — September 25, 2026

The analyst's record: 75–69 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The night lost — we finished 2-2, −0.6u. Best win: Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Ks @ -140 (actual 11); worst miss: Andrew Painter Under 5.5 Ks @ -139 (actual 8).

Tyler Glasnow — Over 6.5 Ks (-140): WON
Cam Schlittler — Under 6.5 Ks (-146): WON
Andrew Painter — Under 5.5 Ks (-139): LOST
Brady Singer — Over 3.5 Ks (-128): LOST

Tonight

17 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Phillies at 2026-09-25T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Freddy Peralta has consistently owned this Philadelphia lineup — hitters manage a .248 average against him and strike out at a 34% clip across 161 plate appearances over seven seasons. That history matters at Citizens Bank Park because the wind is 14 mph blowing in and the park boosts strikeouts by 3%, factors that suppress homers and amplify Peralta’s swing-and-miss profile. The market has the Phillies favored at about -166 with a 6.5 total, signaling modest scoring and making Peralta’s matchup edge the central storyline to watch.

The angle

Cristopher Sanchez — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Phillies, 2026-09-25T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park will nudge strikeouts, but the real drag is Tampa Bay’s contact: they’ve gone down just 18.2% of the time against lefties this season, and Sanchez’s last five strikeout totals read 6, 5, 3, 5, 8. With the park’s small bump (+3%) offset by that low‑strikeout lineup and a steady, normal load — 98 pitches five days ago — this sets up for him to stay under the number. Give me Cristopher Sanchez Under 5.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings +122 · FanDuel +118

11 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Diamondbacks @ Padres — Jake Cronenworth owns Brandon Pfaadt — 13-for-31 (.419) over 34 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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