The Morning Card — September 24, 2026

The analyst's record: 73–67 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 0-2 for a −2.0u night. The loss leads: Foster Griffin Under 4.5 Ks @ -126 lost (actual 7) was our worst miss, while Robbie Ray Over 3.5 Ks @ -128 lost (actual 2).

Foster Griffin — Under 4.5 Ks (-126): LOST
Robbie Ray — Over 3.5 Ks (-128): LOST

Tonight

12 games on the slate — the marquee: Cardinals @ Pirates at 2026-09-24T16:35:00.0000000+00:00.

The key angle is Kyle Leahy's ability to rack up strikeouts against a Pirates lineup that whiffs a lot — Pittsburgh hitters carry a 22.6% strikeout rate vs RHP and Leahy has generated swing-and-miss himself (8.4 K/9). Books make Pittsburgh the clear home favorite (around -162) and set the total at 6.8, signaling modest scoring and putting a premium on Leahy turning strikeouts into length. That matters because Leahy has been uneven recently — he gave up six runs in three innings his last time out — so if he can't go deep, Pittsburgh's hot offense and a bullpen that's been worked heavily over the last three days will determine late leverage at pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Watch list

Padres @ Dodgers — Nick Pivetta has dominated Los Angeles Dodgers — .232 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 157 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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