The Morning Card — September 23, 2026

The analyst's record: 73–65 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 2-4 for a net −2.4u; the loss leads — plain and simple. Our best win was Brady Basso Under 3.5 Ks @ -147 (actual 2); our worst miss was MacKenzie Gore Over 4.5 Ks @ +122 (actual 2).

Dustin May — Under 3.5 Ks (-111): WON
Brady Basso — Under 3.5 Ks (-147): WON
Drew Anderson — Under 4.5 Ks (+102): LOST
MacKenzie Gore — Over 4.5 Ks (+122): LOST
Brandon Williamson — Over 2.5 Ks (-133): LOST
Kyle Freeland — Over 2.5 Ks (+120): LOST

Tonight

16 games on the slate — the marquee: Nationals @ Tigers at 2026-09-23T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Framber Valdez's durability is the story — he's logged 175.0 innings this season, which matters because Washington counters with Richard Lovelady, who has thrown just 32.7 innings. The market makes Detroit a clear favorite at roughly -190 on the moneyline, and an 8.0 total implies expectations for a middling run environment. That mismatch could force Washington's bullpen early; both teams' relief corps have already logged 13.0 and 13.3 relief innings recently, and several arms (Beau Brieske, Keider Montero, Luis Perales, Jackson Kent) are flagged as gassed or heavy.

Watch list

Jays @ Orioles — Max Scherzer has dominated Baltimore Orioles — .215 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 325 plate appearances across 9 seasons.

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