The Morning Card — September 22, 2026

The analyst's record: 71–61 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 2-0 and +1.6u — credit to Trey Yesavage Over 2.5 Ks @ -150 (actual 3). The standout was DJ Herz Over 3.5 Ks @ -113 (actual 4).

DJ Herz — Over 3.5 Ks (-113): WON
Trey Yesavage — Over 2.5 Ks (-150): WON

Tonight

16 games on the slate — the marquee: Brewers @ Phillies at 2026-09-22T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Zack Wheeler has dominated Milwaukee, holding the Brewers to a .231 average with a 29% strikeout rate. FanDuel lists the Phillies at -142 and the 7.3 total signals modest scoring. That history matters because Milwaukee counters with William Contreras riding a 9-game hit streak and Brice Turang red-hot at .400, a test of whether Wheeler’s swing-and-miss edge will hold.

The angle

Dustin May — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (Brewers @ Phillies, 2026-09-22T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park gives pitchers a small lift — strikeouts tick up three percent — but this Phillies order doesn’t bite much at right‑handers, fanning in just 21 percent of trips (22.1 percent for the club overall). Dustin May’s (Brewers) strikeout share sits in that same lane at 22.5 percent for his career and 22.6 percent this season, and he’s on four days’ rest after a 70‑pitch outing. Give me Dustin May Under 3.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -111 · Fanatics -115 · DraftKings -122

10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Jays @ Orioles — Max Scherzer has dominated Baltimore Orioles — .215 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 325 plate appearances across 9 seasons.

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