The Morning Card — September 21, 2026

The analyst's record: 69–61 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 4-4, −1.0u — the night lost, and that loss leads the ledger, plain and simple. We did pick up credit on a few plays, most notably Griffin Jax Over 4.5 Ks @ -145 won (actual 5), while the worst miss came on Hunter Brown Under 6.5 Ks @ -148 lost (actual 10).

Sandy Alcantara — Under 3.5 Ks (-115): WON
Quinn Mathews — Under 5.5 Ks (-134): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 4.5 Ks (-145): WON
Jack Perkins — Under 4.5 Ks (-148): WON
Corbin Burnes — Over 4.5 Ks (-104): LOST
Tomoyuki Sugano — Under 3.5 Ks (-123): LOST
Hunter Brown — Under 6.5 Ks (-148): LOST
Ryan Johnson — Under 4.5 Ks (-128): LOST

Tonight

3 games on the slate — the marquee: Jays @ Orioles at 2026-09-21T22:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Shane Baz has consistently stifled Toronto, holding the Blue Jays to a .213 batting average in 153 plate appearances. FanDuel prices Baltimore as a very slight favorite at -112 and the market's 7.5 total points to modest scoring, a reflection of Baz's track record against this lineup. The clearest counter is Alejandro Kirk — he hits .386 at Camden Yards and is .278 against right-handers this year, so his at-bats against Baz are the matchup to watch.

The angle

Trey Yesavage — Over 2.5 Strikeouts (Jays @ Orioles, 2026-09-21T22:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Baltimore has been swinging through right-handed pitching all year, striking out in 24% of their trips, and Trey Yesavage’s (Jays) profile fits the matchup — he’s fanned 24.8% of batters in his career and 23.1% this season. Even on a light leash last time, just 27 pitches, his punch still shows — nine strikeouts in four innings against Boston on July 24. Give me Trey Yesavage Over 2.5 strikeouts.

Prices: Fanatics -150

4 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Nationals @ Tigers — Riley Greene has hit safely in 10 straight games.

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