The Morning Card — August 26, 2026

The analyst's record: 97–108 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night, going 4-6 and losing −2.6u. The one standout was Taj Bradley’s 11 Ks, while the worst miss came from Jacob deGrom (2 Ks).

Payton Tolle — Over 6.5 Ks (+122): WON
Taj Bradley — Over 5.5 Ks (-122): WON
Aaron Nola — Over 5.5 Ks (-145): WON
Paul Skenes — Under 6.5 Ks (-145): WON
Ian Seymour — Over 5.5 Ks (-104): VOID
Gavin Williams — Over 7.5 Ks (-140): LOST
Jacob deGrom — Over 6.5 Ks (-118): LOST
Chris Bassitt — Under 3.5 Ks (+140): LOST
Kyle Harrison — Over 5.5 Ks (-150): LOST
Andrew Alvarez — Under 4.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Clay Holmes — Under 3.5 Ks (-135): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Tigers at 2026-08-26T17:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Freddy Peralta has been a nemesis for Detroit, holding the Tigers to a .228 batting average while generating a 30% strikeout rate against them over his appearances. That long-term dominance is tempered by his 2026 inconsistencies — a 5.33 ERA across 135.0 innings this year. Books peg Detroit as the slight favorite at -118 and the total is 8.0, signaling a middling run environment. Detroit leans on Troy Melton's 1.80 ERA, and the matchup contains the microstory of Zach McKinstry, who is 0-for-10 lifetime against Peralta.

The angle

Freddy Peralta — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Tigers, 2026-08-26T17:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Freddy Peralta (Rays) has a bead on these Tigers, holding them to a .228 average with a 30% strikeout rate over 89 plate appearances across 4 seasons. Detroit’s order is in a swing-and-miss spell — Dillon Dingler has 5 strikeouts in 21 plate appearances, Spencer Torkelson 5 in 17, and Zach McKinstry 4 in 16 — and the Tigers have struck out 22.3% of the time against right-handers this season. Give me Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -108 · DraftKings -112

BAA .228 · K rate 30% · 8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Cubs @ Diamondbacks — Alex Bregman has taken Eduardo Rodriguez deep 3 times in 34 plate appearances across 8 seasons.

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