The Morning Card — August 25, 2026

The analyst's record: 93–102 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The night lost — we went 5-5 and finished −0.5u. We’ll give credit to Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Ks (+127) for a tidy win (6), while the worst miss was Kumar Rocker Under 4.5 Ks (+110), who allowed 8.

Kevin Gausman — Over 5.5 Ks (+127): WON
Cade Cavalli — Over 6.5 Ks (+106): WON
Jeffrey Springs — Under 3.5 Ks (-115): WON
Drew Rasmussen — Over 4.5 Ks (-148): WON
Ranger Suarez — Under 5.5 Ks (-158): WON
Braxton Ashcraft — Over 5.5 Ks (+124): LOST
Zack Wheeler — Over 7.5 Ks (+114): LOST
Kumar Rocker — Under 4.5 Ks (+110): LOST
Parker Messick — Over 6.5 Ks (-145): LOST
Chase Burns — Over 6.5 Ks (-102): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Marlins at 2026-08-25T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Payton Tolle's recent dominance runs headlong into Otto Lopez's season-long feast against left-handers. Tolle has a 2.37 ERA and 11.3 K/9 across his last five starts, making him a tough assignment. Lopez has produced a .366 average against lefties this season over 123 AB. That will test Tolle's swing-and-miss stuff against a Marlins group that strikes out just 20.2% versus lefties (885 PA), turning the key battle into strikeouts versus contact.

The angle

Payton Tolle — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (Sox @ Marlins, 2026-08-25T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Miami’s order has been chasing, striking out at 22.8% against lefties this season, and both Esteury Ruiz and Griffin Conine have worn eight strikeouts apiece over their last five games. Payton Tolle (Sox) is in attack mode: he fanned fourteen over six innings against the A’s, followed by eight scoreless frames with four strikeouts and then six more his last time out, and he’s carrying a 2.37 mark over his last five. Give me Payton Tolle Over 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel +122 · DraftKings +107

ERA 2.37 · K/9 11.3 · 10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Braves — Tyler Glasnow has dominated Atlanta Braves — .211 BAA with a 35% strikeout rate over 144 plate appearances across 7 seasons.

More cards

← August 24, 2026

Aug 25 · Aug 24 · Aug 23 · Aug 22 · Aug 21 · Aug 20 · Aug 19 · Aug 18 · Aug 17 · Aug 16