The Morning Card — August 24, 2026

The analyst's record: 88–97 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 4-6, −2.0u; the night lost, and the loss leads. We can credit Andrew Abbott Over 3.5 Ks @ +124 -> won (actual 6) as the night's best win, while Cristian Javier Under 4.5 Ks @ -128 -> lost (actual 8) was the worst miss.

Andrew Abbott — Over 3.5 Ks (+124): WON
Daniel Lynch IV — Under 2.5 Ks (+105): WON
Matt Wilkinson — Under 2.5 Ks (-104): WON
Walker Buehler — Over 3.5 Ks (-128): WON
Tyler Mahle — Over 5.5 Ks (+120): LOST
Shane Baz — Over 4.5 Ks (+108): LOST
Cristian Javier — Under 4.5 Ks (-128): LOST
Yusei Kikuchi — Over 4.5 Ks (-111): LOST
Nolan McLean — Over 6.5 Ks (+115): LOST
Foster Griffin — Over 4.5 Ks (-158): LOST

Tonight

10 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Marlins at 2026-08-24T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Sandy Alcantara has been dealing — a 1.09 ERA over his last five starts — and Miami will need him to eat innings because their bullpen has been run thin, logging 13.3 relief innings in the last three days. Even so, books make the Sox a roughly -135 favorite and a 7.5 total implies a modest scoring night. That puts extra focus on Willson Contreras, who hits .346 at loanDepot park and is 3-for-10 lifetime against Alcantara, a matchup wrinkle that could complicate the ace’s evening.

The angle

Ranger Suarez — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Sox @ Marlins, 2026-08-24T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Miami’s bats have tightened up against lefties — this projected group is striking out just 20.3 percent in those spots, with Otto Lopez not fanning once in his last 21 plate appearances. Ranger Suarez (Sox) hasn’t been missing many bats either: 3, 2, 3, 2, and 6 strikeouts over his last five starts, on pitch counts of 93, 81, 70, 65, and 64. Give me Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -158 · FanDuel -162

5 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Rays @ Tigers — Drew Rasmussen has dominated Detroit Tigers — .157 BAA with a 33% strikeout rate over 52 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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