The Morning Card — August 23, 2026

The analyst's record: 84–91 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night, 5-6 and −1.5u. We did get tidy wins — notably Andrew Painter Over 3.5 Ks (actual 8) — but our worst miss was Blade Tidwell Under 3.5 Ks (actual 7).

David Peterson — Over 4.5 Ks (+104): WON
Cody Bradford — Under 4.5 Ks (+102): WON
Dean Kremer — Over 4.5 Ks (+100): WON
Jared Jones — Over 4.5 Ks (-119): WON
Andrew Painter — Over 3.5 Ks (-154): WON
Logan Henderson — Over 6.5 Ks (-104): LOST
Michael Wacha — Under 4.5 Ks (-150): LOST
Christian Scott — Over 6.5 Ks (+122): LOST
Blade Tidwell — Under 3.5 Ks (+105): LOST
Dylan Cease — Over 8.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Eury Perez — Over 6.5 Ks (+108): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Orioles at 2026-08-23T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Shane Baz's strikeout upside is the game's central question — he averages 8.2 K/9 and has posted double-digit and nine-strikeout outings lately, but he draws a Rays lineup that records just a 16.5% strikeout rate versus right-handers. Books make the Rays a hair favorite at -106 while the total sits at 8.5, reflecting a market that expects a close, middling-scoring game where Baz's ability to miss bats could swing the day. That matters because Chandler Simpson hits .323 against righties, so if Baz can't force swings-and-misses early the contact-heavy Rays can quickly pressure a Baltimore bullpen that has thrown 9.7 relief innings over the last three days.

The angle

Shane Baz — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Orioles, 2026-08-23T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Shane Baz (Orioles) is timing his best stuff for late summer: he punched out 10 Yankees last time and 9 Rangers before that, working 6.1 and 8.0 innings on 104 and 93 pitches. With a 12 mph crosswind trimming carry and Baltimore’s bullpen already at 9.7 relief innings over the last 3 days, he should be turned loose, and even a Rays lineup that has struck out just 16.5% against righties won’t blunt that. Give me Shane Baz Over 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel +108 · Fanatics +105 · DraftKings -101

12 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Twins @ Padres — Josh Bell owns Walker Buehler — 5-for-11 (.455) over 11 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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