The Morning Card — August 22, 2026

The analyst's record: 79–85 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost the night, finishing 4-8, −3.6u — the loss leads and that's on us. We did get a big hit with Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Ks @ +112 (actual 9), but the worst miss was Ryan Gusto Over 4.5 Ks @ +115 (actual 2).

Connor Prielipp — Over 5.5 Ks (+120): WON
Jesus Luzardo — Over 7.5 Ks (+112): WON
Matthew Boyd — Under 4.5 Ks (+111): WON
Sonny Gray — Over 5.5 Ks (-104): WON
Joey Cantillo — Over 5.5 Ks (-118): LOST
Chris Sale — Over 7.5 Ks (-110): LOST
Reid Detmers — Over 6.5 Ks (+106): LOST
Ryan Gusto — Over 4.5 Ks (+115): LOST
Cam Schlittler — Over 6.5 Ks (-103): LOST
Sean Manaea — Over 5.5 Ks (-136): LOST
Freddy Peralta — Under 5.5 Ks (-142): LOST
JT Ginn — Over 4.5 Ks (-121): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Jays @ Yankees at 2026-08-22T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Dylan Cease has carved up New York, holding the Yankees to a .196 batting average while punching out 36% of hitters in their matchups. That history lines up with his season work — a 2.33 ERA and 13.1 K/9 — so he brings both track record and swing-and-miss tonight. It matters because the Yankees' nine scheduled against him carries a 23.3% strikeout rate vs right-handers, and several regulars have been quiet even as the club owns a 5-0 run over its last five. New York is also missing big boppers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and Cease fanned 10 in his most recent turn against the Yankees, making his start the matchup's defining subplot.

The angle

Dylan Cease — Over 8.5 Strikeouts (Jays @ Yankees, 2026-08-22T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

The Yankees swing through right-handers at a high clip — 24.4 percent of their trips end in a strikeout. Dylan Cease (Jays) has their number: over 185 plate appearances he’s held them to .196 and struck out 35.7 percent, and last week he punched out 10 in 6.1 innings on 104 pitches. Give me Dylan Cease Over 8.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -125 · DraftKings -130

BAA .196 · K rate 36% · 17 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Reds @ Diamondbacks — Gabriel Moreno has hit safely in 14 straight games.

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