The Morning Card — October 7, 2026

The analyst's record: 82–89 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night, 0-1, −1.0u. Our Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 Ks @ -127 lost — he had 10 Ks, and that was our worst miss.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto — Under 6.5 Ks (-127): LOST

Tonight

4 games on the slate — the marquee: Rays @ Yankees at 2026-10-08T00:00:00.0000000+00:00.

Max Fried has routinely shut down this lineup, limiting Tampa Bay to a .158 batting average while carrying a 2.73 ERA this season. That history matters because Tampa Bay comes in hot, scoring 23 runs across their last five games, setting up a clash between form and matchup. The market makes the Yankees the clear favorite at about -162 on the moneyline, and the total sits at 7.0, reflecting expectations for modest scoring.

The angle

Max Fried — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Rays @ Yankees, 2026-10-08T00:00:00.0000000+00:00)

Tampa Bay’s lineup doesn’t give lefties many empty swings: they’ve struck out in 20.5% of trips against that side this season, and as a team they’re at 18.9%. Even with Max Fried (Yankees) fanning 23.6% this season and 24.9% over his last ten, the Rays just saw him and held him to four strikeouts, and he comes in on seven days rest after a 98-pitch turn. Give me Max Fried Under 4.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -120 · DraftKings -121

BAA .158 · K rate 22% · 10 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Braves — Tyler Glasnow has dominated Atlanta Braves — .222 BAA with a 35% strikeout rate over 165 plate appearances across 8 seasons.

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