The Morning Card — August 28, 2026

The analyst's record: 103–121 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost the night, going 2-3 and finishing −1.1u. Chris Sale Over 7.5 Ks at +124 was our best win (actual 11), while Jacob Misiorowski Over 8.5 Ks at -125 was our worst miss (actual 6).

Chris Sale — Over 7.5 Ks (+124): WON
Noah Cameron — Under 4.5 Ks (-142): WON
Jacob Misiorowski — Over 8.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Jose Cabrera — Under 3.5 Ks (-119): LOST
Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Ks (-122): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Reds @ Cubs at 2026-08-28T18:20:00.0000000+00:00.

David Peterson has been a persistent matchup problem for Cincinnati, carrying a .318 batting average against over 149 plate appearances across four seasons. Even so, oddsmakers make the Cubs a heavy favorite (Cubs -184 on FanDuel) and the 8.5 total points to modest scoring. That history matters because several Reds regulars own strong small-sample lines vs Peterson—JJ Bleday is 6-for-12 and Tyler Stephenson is 6-for-12—and Bleday faces a left-hander tonight. Peterson has shown signs of stabilization, going 6.0 IP and 2 ER in his most recent outing, and Wrigley tilts toward pitchers.

The angle

David Peterson — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Reds @ Cubs, 2026-08-28T18:20:00.0000000+00:00)

The Reds haven’t just seen David Peterson (Cubs) — they’ve solved him, batting .318 across 149 plate appearances, with Tyler Stephenson and JJ Bleday both 6-for-12. He misses far fewer righties than lefties, fanning 15.3 percent of right-handed hitters compared to 28.6 percent against lefties, and Cincinnati brings several right-handed bats. With Chicago’s bullpen barely used at 3.7 relief innings over the last three days, the early hook is in play — give me David Peterson Under 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -157

BAA .318 · K rate 23% · 14 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Mariners @ Jays — Dylan Cease has dominated Seattle Mariners — .169 BAA with a 33% strikeout rate over 92 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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