The Morning Card — August 29, 2026

The analyst's record: 108–129 since 2026-08-05. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 5-8 and finished −4.3u — the loss leads. Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Ks @ -140 (actual 8) was the night's best win, while Michael Wacha Under 4.5 Ks @ -160 (actual 10) was the worst miss.

Cam Schlittler — Over 6.5 Ks (-120): WON
Logan Henderson — Over 6.5 Ks (-120): WON
Dylan Cease — Over 7.5 Ks (-140): WON
Brandon Young — Under 4.5 Ks (-151): WON
Tarik Skubal — Over 6.5 Ks (-156): WON
Shane McClanahan — Over 4.5 Ks (-129): LOST
Dean Kremer — Over 5.5 Ks (+115): LOST
Tomoyuki Sugano — Under 2.5 Ks (+146): LOST
Eury Perez — Over 5.5 Ks (-111): LOST
David Peterson — Under 5.5 Ks (-157): LOST
Michael Wacha — Under 4.5 Ks (-160): LOST
Reid Detmers — Over 6.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Christian Scott — Over 5.5 Ks (-180): LOST

Tonight

17 games on the slate — the marquee: Sox @ Yankees at 2026-08-29T17:05:00.0000000+00:00.

This shapes as a lefty-on-lefty duel in which Carlos Rodón’s swing-and-miss edge (9.6 K/9) will try to exploit a Yankees lineup that strikes out 25.3% against southpaws. The counter is Jake Bennett, who generates fewer whiffs (6.9 K/9) but has logged a heavier workload this year (87.7 IP), so contact rates against lefties should dictate how deep either starter goes. The market prices New York a modest favorite at about -120 on the moneyline while an 8.0 total implies expectations for a middling-scoring game. Key watch: Austin Wells is a pronounced liability vs lefties (.110) against Rodón, while Jahmai Jones arrives red-hot, batting .526 recently — those lefty-specific matchups will set the tone.

The angle

Jake Bennett — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (Sox @ Yankees, 2026-08-29T17:05:00.0000000+00:00)

The Yankees have been a breeze for lefties to fan — a 25.3% strikeout rate — and the current cast is still chasing; Austin Wells has 10 in 18 and Spencer Jones has 6 in 16 over the last 5. Jake Bennett (Sox) just stacked 6, 6, and 5 strikeouts over 7.0, 4.0, and 5.1 innings in his recent starts. Give me Jake Bennett Over 4.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: Fanatics -115 · DraftKings -116 · FanDuel -120

12 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Sox @ Yankees — Max Fried has dominated Boston Red Sox — .207 BAA with a 29% strikeout rate over 210 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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