The Morning Card — September 5, 2026

The analyst's record: 11–14 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 4-3 and +0.6u — a modest net gain, nothing more. Credit to Jackson Kent Over 3.5 Ks @ +100 for the best win (actual 4), while our worst miss was Kade Morris Over 2.5 Ks @ +115 (actual 0).

Jackson Kent — Over 3.5 Ks (+100): WON
Cristopher Sanchez — Under 6.5 Ks (-106): WON
Ranger Suarez — Under 5.5 Ks (-108): WON
Foster Griffin — Under 5.5 Ks (-130): WON
Jameson Taillon — Over 2.5 Ks (-125): LOST
Kade Morris — Over 2.5 Ks (+115): LOST
Andre Pallante — Over 2.5 Ks (-135): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Braves @ Phillies at 2026-09-05T22:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Atlanta has dominated this matchup all year, leading the season series 6-1 and outscoring Philadelphia 37-18. Still, sportsbooks peg the Phillies as the favorite — FanDuel lists them around -156 and the consensus total is 8.0, implying a modestly contained scoring game. A big reason the Braves have been troublesome: Ronald Acuña Jr. has taken Zack Wheeler deep four times in 60 career plate appearances. The flip side is that Alec Bohm has a clear edge over Martín Pérez, going 8-for-20 against him, so the contest may hinge on those specific hitter–pitcher matchups rather than roster-wide trends.

The angle

Martin Perez — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (Braves @ Phillies, 2026-09-05T22:05:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park will be loud, but the Phillies don’t offer many empty swings to lefties. This lineup has struck out on just 20.6% of trips against southpaws this season, and Martin Perez hasn’t been a big bat-misser — 18.7% in his career, 19.1% this year, and only 17.2% over his last ten starts. Even with a slight strikeout bump from this park and 7 days of rest after 83 pitches last time out, the path points to a low punchout night. Give me Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -115 · FanDuel -132

8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Rays @ Rangers — Jacob deGrom has dominated Tampa Bay Rays — .224 BAA with a 31% strikeout rate over 103 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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