The Morning Card — September 6, 2026

The analyst's record: 17–18 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 6-4 and finished +0.9u last night. We’ll take credit for Chris Bassitt Over 3.5 Ks @ -146, who delivered with 6, but the night hinged on Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 Ks @ -106, who allowed 7 and was our worst miss.

Taj Bradley — Under 6.5 Ks (-108): WON
Martin Perez — Under 3.5 Ks (-115): WON
Brandon Pfaadt — Under 4.5 Ks (-120): WON
Matthew Liberatore — Under 5.5 Ks (-120): WON
Andrew Abbott — Over 3.5 Ks (-126): WON
Chris Bassitt — Over 3.5 Ks (-146): WON
Drew Rasmussen — Under 5.5 Ks (-106): LOST
Framber Valdez — Over 3.5 Ks (-113): LOST
Tyler Glasnow — Under 7.5 Ks (-136): LOST
Max Scherzer — Over 3.5 Ks (-132): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Brewers @ Reds at 2026-09-06T16:10:00.0000000+00:00.

The pitching matchup centers on Kyle Harrison's swing-or-miss arsenal (10.9 K/9) against a Reds lineup that carries a 25.5% strikeout rate versus lefties. That profile is complicated by Elly De La Cruz, who is red-hot, batting .462 over his last 10 games and .343 against lefties this season. It matters in context: Harrison allowed 9 ER in 3.2 IP in his last start, turning a strikeout edge into a potential short leash. Books list the Brewers at about -163 on the moneyline and set the total at 9.0, pricing this as a game with a clear favorite but only middling run-scoring expectations.

The angle

Kyle Harrison — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Brewers @ Reds, 2026-09-06T16:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Great American can be unforgiving, and Kyle Harrison (Brewers) arrives after a bruising: 98 pitches in 3.2 innings, nine runs, five balls leaving the yard. Even with a season strikeout rate of 27.2 percent, his last ten sits at 24.8 and Cincinnati’s lineup is at 24.6 against lefties — he’ll need a long, clean start to touch seven. With Elly De La Cruz scorching (.462 over his last ten, .343 vs lefties), give me Kyle Harrison Under 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -108

K/9 10.1 · IP 47.3 · 8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Braves @ Phillies — Ronald Acuña Jr. has taken Aaron Nola deep 4 times in 68 plate appearances across 9 seasons.

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