The Morning Card — September 7, 2026

The analyst's record: 21–22 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

The loss leads: we went 4-4 and finished −0.6u. We did get credit for Bailey Ober Over 3.5 Ks @ -140 (actual 6) as our best win and Andrew Alvarez Over 3.5 Ks @ +106 (actual 5) performed well; the worst miss was Gavin Williams Under 7.5 Ks @ -113 (actual 11).

Andrew Alvarez — Over 3.5 Ks (+106): WON
Kyle Harrison — Under 6.5 Ks (-108): WON
MacKenzie Gore — Under 5.5 Ks (-138): WON
Bailey Ober — Over 3.5 Ks (-140): WON
Eduardo Rodriguez — Under 4.5 Ks (-108): LOST
Gavin Williams — Under 7.5 Ks (-113): LOST
Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Ks (+110): LOST
Bryan Woo — Under 6.5 Ks (+103): LOST

Tonight

11 games on the slate — the marquee: Braves @ Phillies at 2026-09-07T17:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Jesús Luzardo has dominated Atlanta — a .248 batting average against and a 29% strikeout rate — and he toes the rubber tonight for Philadelphia. That history helps explain why the market prices the Phillies as a solid favorite (FanDuel: -174) and why books set an 8.0 total, signaling expectations for modest scoring. Atlanta still brings a counterpunch: Ronald Acuña Jr. is red-hot (.436 over his last 10 games), but Grant Holmes' plunging pitch counts — most recently 26 pitches — suggest a short leash that could limit Atlanta's upside.

The angle

Jesus Luzardo — Under 7.5 Strikeouts (Braves @ Phillies, 2026-09-07T17:05:00.0000000+00:00)

When Atlanta sees a lefty, they don’t flail — they’ve struck out on just 21.4% of those trips this season. Jesús Luzardo (Phillies) has the power, but his last turn ended at six strikeouts, and he arrives on six days’ rest after a 99-pitch outing — this feels more like a night of quick outs than a stack of punchouts. Give me Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -150 · FanDuel -160

BAA .248 · K rate 29% · 15 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Cubs @ Brewers — Pete Crow-Armstrong is on a power surge — 7 HR, 1 double, batting .326 over his last 10 games.

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