The Morning Card — September 8, 2026

The analyst's record: 23–26 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night, finishing 2-4 for −2.3u. We did get Chase Burns Over 4.5 Ks @ +102 (5) and Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Ks @ -146 (3), with Chase Burns the best win, while Logan Webb Under 5.5 Ks @ -148 (8), Jonah Tong Under 4.5 Ks @ -108 (7), Jesus Luzardo Under 7.5 Ks @ -150 (12) — Jesus Luzardo was the worst miss; Robert Gasser Under 4.5 Ks @ +100 (5) also missed.

Chase Burns — Over 4.5 Ks (+102): WON
Jake Irvin — Under 4.5 Ks (-146): WON
Logan Webb — Under 5.5 Ks (-148): LOST
Jonah Tong — Under 4.5 Ks (-108): LOST
Jesus Luzardo — Under 7.5 Ks (-150): LOST
Robert Gasser — Under 4.5 Ks (+100): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Astros @ Phillies at 2026-09-08T22:40:00.0000000+00:00.

Each team's starter comes in hot: both Hayden Wesneski and Andrew Painter threw 7.0 innings with 0 earned runs in their most recent outings. That matters because Painter still carries a 5.55 ERA on the season even as he racks up long, scoreless turns, while Wesneski’s 3.18 ERA points to steadier results for the Astros. Books list the Phillies about -142 (Astros +120) at Citizens Bank Park, reflecting how the market is valuing the home starter’s recent bounce in what should hinge on who sustains those recent starts.

The angle

Hayden Wesneski — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Astros @ Phillies, 2026-09-08T22:40:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park adds a little bite, with strikeouts coming 3% more often, and this Phillies lineup has been fanning on 21.1% of trips against right-handers. Hayden Wesneski (Astros) fits the angle: he’s struck out 22.8% of batters in his career, 21.5% this season, 19.6% over his last ten starts, and against the Phillies it’s 25.4%; his last three turns went 7.0, 5.0, and 5.0 innings with 5, 6, and 4 strikeouts. With 6 days since his last outing and 90 pitches last time, the runway is clear. Give me Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -127 · FanDuel -132

11 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Diamondbacks @ Royals — Nolan Arenado has taken Michael Wacha deep 4 times in 25 plate appearances across 6 seasons.

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