The Morning Card — September 9, 2026

The analyst's record: 28–31 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night — 5-5 and −1.2u. Credit where it’s due: Nick Lodolo Over 3.5 Ks @ -148 (actual 6) was our best win, and the worst miss came on Cam Schlittler Under 7.5 Ks @ +115 (actual 10).

Drew Anderson — Under 4.5 Ks (+105): WON
Quinn Mathews — Under 5.5 Ks (-140): WON
Jose Soriano — Under 5.5 Ks (-146): WON
Nick Lodolo — Over 3.5 Ks (-148): WON
Sean Burke — Under 6.5 Ks (-149): WON
Corbin Burnes — Over 3.5 Ks (+126): LOST
Hayden Wesneski — Over 3.5 Ks (-127): LOST
Freddy Peralta — Over 4.5 Ks (+105): LOST
Casey Mize — Under 4.5 Ks (-149): LOST
Cam Schlittler — Under 7.5 Ks (+115): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Rangers @ Mariners at 2026-09-09T20:10:00.0000000+00:00.

Brandon Nimmo's edge against left-handers is the game's clearest storyline: he's hitting .325 against southpaws this season, and he'll be up against a lefty who carries a 5.40 ERA in limited work. That matchup is tempered by T-Mobile Park's indoor profile, which boosts strikeouts +10% and plays pitcher-friendly with -12% fewer runs, a setting that can blunt a single bat's impact. The Mariners are favored at about -156 with a 7.8 total, so the market is pricing this as a modest-scoring game. Counterpoint: the Rangers have dominated the season series 8-3 and arrive 3-2 over their last five, so Nimmo's lefty advantage plugs into an offense that's been producing.

The angle

Kade Anderson — Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Rangers @ Mariners, 2026-09-09T20:10:00.0000000+00:00)

Under the T-Mobile roof, strikeouts get a ten percent nudge, but Kade Anderson (Mariners) isn’t built to pile them up — career strikeout rate 21.2 percent, 20.7 this season, 20.3 over his last ten — and his three outings have ended with 3, 3, and 5 strikeouts. Texas doesn’t chase in bunches against lefties, striking out 22.4 percent of the time. With six days since his last turn and 79 pitches last time out, give me Kade Anderson Under 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -136 · Fanatics -145

6 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Diamondbacks @ Royals — Vinnie Pasquantino owns Arizona Diamondbacks — 21-for-52 (.404) over 57 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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