The Morning Card — September 10, 2026

The analyst's record: 33–33 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 5-2 and +1.6u; credit where due: Davis Martin Under 4.5 Ks @ -143 was our best win (actual 1). Our worst miss was Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Ks @ +143 (actual 1).

Robert Stock — Under 4.5 Ks (-128): WON
Kade Anderson — Under 5.5 Ks (-136): WON
Davis Martin — Under 4.5 Ks (-143): WON
Logan Henderson — Under 6.5 Ks (-146): WON
Jake Bennett — Under 5.5 Ks (-149): WON
Griffin Jax — Over 4.5 Ks (-120): LOST
Zac Gallen — Over 2.5 Ks (+143): LOST

Tonight

5 games on the slate — the marquee: Astros @ Phillies at 2026-09-10T17:05:00.0000000+00:00.

Zack Wheeler has routinely stifled Houston, holding the Astros to a .202 average, yet Christian Walker has been a glaring exception at 10-for-26 (.385). Books list the Phillies around -188 while the Astros sit near +158 on most boards, reflecting the market's faith in Wheeler. Wheeler brings a 3.28 ERA this year, and Citizens Bank Park's +3% boost to strikeouts should accentuate his profile against an Astros lineup he has curtailed. That matchup is sharpened by Walker’s track record and his .230 mark against right-handers this season in 413 at-bats.

The angle

Cristian Javier — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Astros @ Phillies, 2026-09-10T17:05:00.0000000+00:00)

Citizens Bank Park adds a little lift to strikeouts, and this Phillies lineup has been punching out on 21.2% of trips against righties — exactly the kind of night Cristian Javier (Astros) can ride. He’s fresh with six days since his last turn and only 79 pitches last time, and he just piled up eight strikeouts in five innings; for his career he’s sat down 26.2% of hitters, 23.1% over his last ten starts. Give me Cristian Javier Over 3.5 Strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -146 · FanDuel -166

16 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Pirates @ Sox — Brandon Lowe is red-hot — batting .405 over his last 10 games (baseline .262).

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