The Morning Card — September 11, 2026

The analyst's record: 34–33 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We went 1-0 and finished +0.7u on the night, so the ledger reads in our favor. Best result: Cristian Javier Over 3.5 Ks @ -146, which produced an actual 5.

Cristian Javier — Over 3.5 Ks (-146): WON

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Pirates @ Cubs at 2026-09-11T18:20:00.0000000+00:00.

Shota Imanaga has been a specific problem for Pittsburgh’s lineup — Bryan Reynolds is 1-for-17 and Nick Gonzales 1-for-14 against him. The market leans to Chicago, pricing the Cubs around -198 on FanDuel with a consensus total of 8.0, signaling an expectation of modest scoring. That history matters because the Pirates arrive hot, having won four of five and scored 17 runs in that stretch while Brandon Lowe is hitting .368 over his last 10 games. At the same time Wilber Dotel’s limited track record (4.41 ERA in 32.7 IP) introduces uncertainty that could blunt or amplify Imanaga’s matchup edge.

The angle

Shota Imanaga — Under 6.5 Strikeouts (Pirates @ Cubs, 2026-09-11T18:20:00.0000000+00:00)

Imanaga’s punchout pace has leveled — four strikeouts in each of his last three outings — and he’s living around the low‑twenties: 23.4 percent this season and 23.0 over his last ten, right on his 23.1 career rhythm. Even with seven days’ rest and ninety‑four pitches in the chamber last time out, that profile makes seven a steep climb against a Pirates lineup that strikes out at 24.0 percent versus lefties. Give me Shota Imanaga (Cubs) Under 6.5 strikeouts.

Prices: DraftKings -142 · FanDuel -146 · Fanatics -150

8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Orioles @ Jays — Max Scherzer has dominated Baltimore Orioles — .207 BAA with a 31% strikeout rate over 302 plate appearances across 8 seasons.

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