The Morning Card — September 12, 2026

The analyst's record: 38–36 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We finished 4-3 for +0.3u; it wasn’t flashy, but it got the job done. Credit goes to Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 Ks @ +109 (actual 8) as our best win, while Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Ks @ -150 (actual 2) was the worst miss.

Carlos Rodon — Over 5.5 Ks (+109): WON
Robbie Ray — Over 4.5 Ks (-130): WON
Matthew Liberatore — Under 5.5 Ks (-134): WON
Shota Imanaga — Under 6.5 Ks (-142): WON
Seth Lugo — Under 4.5 Ks (-132): LOST
Dustin May — Under 5.5 Ks (-103): LOST
Framber Valdez — Over 4.5 Ks (-150): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Mets @ Yankees at 2026-09-12T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Gerrit Cole's persistent trouble against the Mets is the game's spine: he carries a .316 batting average in 170 plate appearances versus them. That split isn't abstract — Marcus Semien has taken Cole deep four times in 53 plate appearances, a specific matchup New York will monitor. The market still makes the Yankees heavy favorites at about -184 on the moneyline, reflecting faith in New York despite Cole's history with this opponent. That thread matters because the Mets' offense has been humming, going 4-1 and totaling 39 runs over their last five games, so Cole's ability to suppress that recent scoring will shape the night.

The angle

Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (Mets @ Yankees, 2026-09-12T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

This one leans toward swings and misses: the Mets have gone down in 21.2% of their trips against right-handers, right in step with the club’s 21.9% season mark. Gerrit Cole (Yankees) still brings the blade — career at 29.0%, 24.5% this year, 25.4% over his last ten — and he’s coming in fresh with six days since his last outing after an 84-pitch turn. Give me Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -108 · DraftKings -116

BAA .316 · K rate 22% · 8 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Dodgers @ Marlins — Tyler Glasnow has dominated Miami Marlins — .204 BAA with a 30% strikeout rate over 111 plate appearances across 5 seasons.

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