The Morning Card — September 13, 2026

The analyst's record: 40–39 since 2026-09-01. Every pick grades in public.

Last night

We lost last night: we went 2-3, −1.6u. We did collect wins on Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 Ks @ -130 (actual 4) and Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Ks @ -148 (actual 7) — Glasnow was the standout — while our worst miss was Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 Ks @ -142 (actual 8).

Kyle Leahy — Over 3.5 Ks (-130): WON
Tyler Glasnow — Under 7.5 Ks (-148): WON
Gerrit Cole — Over 5.5 Ks (-108): LOST
Ranger Suarez — Under 5.5 Ks (-142): LOST
Tyler Mahle — Over 4.5 Ks (-120): LOST

Tonight

15 games on the slate — the marquee: Phillies @ Braves at 2026-09-13T17:35:00.0000000+00:00.

Grant Holmes' day-game dominance is the defining storyline: batters hit just .220 against him in day starts, and he blanked these Phillies in his last outing. Books make the Braves about a -130 favorite and set the total at 9.0, reflecting confidence that a pitcher-friendly Truist Park and Holmes' form will keep scoring modest. That matters because Philadelphia counters with Andrew Painter (5.71 ERA), whose recent results have been uneven, so the Phillies need a different kind of offensive answer tonight. Ronald Acuña Jr.'s red-hot stretch (.400 over his last 10 games) is the clearest threat to Holmes and a big reason the Braves have owned the season series 9-3.

The angle

Grant Holmes — Over 3.5 Strikeouts (Phillies @ Braves, 2026-09-13T17:35:00.0000000+00:00)

Daylight in Atlanta has been Holmes’s friend; across eight seasons, batters have hit just .220 against him in day games compared to .243 overall, and Truist Park gives strikeouts a lift by four percent versus average. He just saw these Phillies and spun six innings with six strikeouts on 89 pitches, and he comes in on six days rest. Philadelphia has fanned on 20.9 percent of their trips against righties this season, so give me Grant Holmes (Braves) Over 3.5 strikeouts.

Prices: FanDuel -102 · DraftKings -110

Split BAA .220 · Overall BAA .243 · 7 Ks over his last 2 starts

Watch list

Orioles @ Jays — Dylan Cease has dominated Baltimore Orioles — .208 BAA with a 31% strikeout rate over 167 plate appearances across 4 seasons.

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